Clipping:Sabermetrics, 1868 version
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| Date | Sunday, May 10, 1868 |
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| Text | The only correct estimate of a batsman’s skill in a match is the score of the number of times he makes his first base on clean hits, and not the number of bases he makes on such hits. The score of “outs” and “runs”, and even of “left on bases” are unreliable in the extreme. A batsman may make his first-base by a good hit, five times out of six, and yet, owing to being followed by a poor hitter, may be pout out five times out of six at second-base by being forced off his first base, while the poor hitter, being followed by heavy batsmen, may be sent home each time. In these instances, it will be seen that the player who did not score a base by a good hit scores five runs and one out, whereas the player who batted skillfully for his bases each time is charges with five outs and but one run. Now, if the estimate of batting had been correct, the skillful player would have been credited with having made his base five times on clean hits while the poor player would have scored but one, the others being made by his poor hits in sending balls to short stop, by which the player on the first-base could be readily put out at second. In this case the batsman is not credited with a base on a hit; as in every such case, when a ball is hit so as to enable an in-fielder to put a player out at second from being forced off, the batsman could readily have been put out at first. In regard to being left on bases, too, that, as an estimate of skill, is no reliable criterion, for plenty of men are left on bases who never earned them, and others by lack of skill in running their bases. In reference to taking the number of times bases are made on hits in place of the number of bases, we have to state that while it can easily be ascertained whether the batsman makes his first base on his hit or on an error of play, the difficulty of judging is increased ten-fold each base that is run. In fact, it is hard to tell how many bases a man is entitled to after securing his hit, but quite easy to ascertain how he made his first base. |
| Source | New York Sunday Mercury |
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| Submitted by | Richard Hershberger |
| Origin | Initial Hershberger Clippings |
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